Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Bush era warmth over? US seen drifting from India



US makes no secret of a growing disappointment with India, while India realizes that the warmth in ties subsided with George Bush's exit.

























NEW DELHI: It was a walk-past that raised eyebrows. At the G-20 summit in Cannes, observers saw what they described as a strange scene -- Prime Minister Manmohan Singhstanding to the side while US President Barack Obama strode past him to greet another head of state with nary a glance at him.

Although the two leaders enjoyed a quiet chat later and are slated for a bilateral summit in Bali next week, for many in the room, the "overlook" seemed to symbolize what is now popularly described as a "drift" in the India-US relationship.

Dirges have been sung over the India-US relationship for some time now. US makes no secret of a growing disappointment with India, while India realizes that the warmth in ties subsided with George Bush's exit. The newer phenomenon is that few tears are being shed in the top levels of the Indian establishment over the state of ties with the US.

So what gives? US remains shell-shocked over the MMRCA rejection while India's positions on Libya, Syria and Palestine -- and increasinglyIran -- draw scorn from Washington's administration elite. After Obama's soul-stirring speech in the Indian Parliament last November, at least on the nuclear front, India has not, according to the US, delivered.

India refuses to change its liability law, whose punitive liability provisions keep US firms out, even though they have thawed enough to carry out "early works agreements" with NPCIL. India has been at the receiving end of a harangue on ratification of the Convention on Supplementary Compensation. India has promised to ratify it but is yet to do it. Consequently, India's membership to the four non-proliferation regimes is still a twinkle in the eye.

India's disappointment goes beyond. In the government, there is little sympathy for US action in Libya or Syria, despite the fact that neither Muammar Gaddafi nor Bashar Al Assad are Indian favourites. India is now increasingly coming round to the view that a US withdrawal from Afghanistan might not be so bad for the region. The recent US move to strike deal with the Haqqani Network at ISI's bidding has not gone down well in India.

In the Asia-Pacific theatre, where India and US have the greatest congruence, the US is pushing for a regional security architecture which India is chary of, because it might mean that India would be sucked into a US-China rivalry, and New Delhi does not want to go down that path.

George Bush believed in the big picture where India was concerned even in the worst days of the nuclear deal. Obama is more transactional and this shows in the relationship. With mounting domestic political issues on either side, Obama's "walk past" is probably an accurate sign of the times.

Even as they cope with the perceived downturn in ties, Indians hope that things will look up. For, despite all the difficulties, US remains India's most important partner. The ties are deeper and multi-faceted. Just over the next few weeks, joint working groups on defence, defence production and procurement will be meeting while a civil aviation summit is on the agenda.

There is an intensive travel schedule planned. Francisco Sanchez, US undersecretary for international trade, is in town. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission chairman Gregory B Jaczkowill lead a five-person NRC delegation to India, followed by Rajiv Shah, head of USAID, deputy secretary Bill Burns, not to speak of congressional delegations and a long line of Indian ministers going to the US. On the face of it, ties have never been as good

Incidentally, India was unusually quiet at the just concluded G-20 summit. At the last G-20 summit in Seoul, Singh was feted as the global economic savant. It was this time in 2010 when all P-5 leaders were beating a path to New Delhi as Singh seemed to have fresh ideas to rebalance the global economy.

A year later, India has dropped off the map. China was the sole toast of last week's summit as European leaders tried to persuade Hu Jintao to help bail out the Eurozone financial crisis, which now threatens to engulf Italy after Greece.

Even French President Nicolas Sarkozy inexplicably stood Singh up, despite the fact that their bilateral meeting coincided with the opening of the commercial bids of the MMRCA where French aircraft Rafale is in the running.

Indian leaders opted for a lower profile. While all the other participants made sure their positions were available to the global media assembled in Cannes, they stayed away.

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