In Chinese history, the name Modi is associated with infamy: it refers to the last emperor of the Jin Dynasty, who ruled for less than a day in the 13th century, having been killed by invading Mongols on the day of his coronation. Emperor Modi of Jin was the shortest-reigning monarch in Chinese history.
But when ‘Emperor’ Narendra Modi arrives in China tomorrow on an official visit, he has history on his side as the longest-reigning chief minister of Gujarat, the industrial State that’s growing its economy at ‘China speed’ and is acknowledged as India’s Guangdong, the entrepreneurial province in southern China, which was the frontrunner in China’s own industrialisation.
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. Image courtesy PIB
Modi has opted not to avail of the “state hospitality” trappings that the Indian government had offered to extend him during his visit. Sources say his reluctance to accept this entitlement is because of two reasons: it is, for him, an expression of “Gujarati pride”, a symbol of his fierce independence and unwillingness to accept the patronage of the central government which is, in his estimation, out to harass him. Secondly, Modi doesn’t wish to share any of the political fruits that, he calculates, will accrue from a successful tour.
It’s fair to say that Modi will be well-received, perhaps even beyond the prescribed limitations of protocol, by Chinese leaders. That’s because Chinese leaders, renowned for their far-sightedness in devising strategic relationships, are likely betting on Narendra Modi’s political ascendance (as we had noted here) and would like to make an investment in his political future in the event of his emerging as a candidate for prime ministership in 2014.
(It isn’t just with Indian leaders that China tends to “hedge its political bets”. Recently, sensing Pakistan cricketer Imran Khan’s rise as an alternative democratic voice within Pakistan, Chinese leaders invited him to Beijing, where they sought his views on the security situation in Pakistan, whose standing as an “all-weather friend” has been strained in recent times by the country’s descent into the hell world of jihadi terror.)
In any case, Chinese leaders can readily identify with the Gujarat government’s sharpened focus on economic development, given that provinces in China are caught up in a similar competition to attract foreign investments and roll out enabling infrastructure. In Modi, they will find a man they can do business with. As the masters of authoritarian capitalism, they might even find a bit of themselves reflected in ‘strongman’ Modi.
In that sense, Modi’s visit will almost certainly succeed in its primary purpose: to showcase Gujarat as a vibrant investment destination. China’s “red capital” is looking for alternative investment avenues, given that rising wages in China and a Chinese currency that has gradually appreciated in value in recent years have marginally altered the cost-benefit calculations of investing in China. The “Made in China” label is rapidly giving way to “Made by China, overseas”.
Chinese moneybags have been making investments overseas, but no other country provides the scale of operations as India, with its billion-two population. With exports markets in the US and Europe collapsing dramatically, Chinese brands are also eager to sell to India.
There is certainly a congruence of interests between the two sides in these areas, which will be well served by this visit. Yet, there are potential stumbling blocks in the larger relationship between the two countries, which could trip up Modi.
Indicatively, a diplomatic flap arose just last week when the Chinese ambassador to India asked a newsman to “shut up” when he sought an explanation on maps on the brochure of Chinese energy company TBEA, which depicted Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh as parts of China. TBEA had signed an MoU with the Gujarat government for an investment of Rs 2,500 crore in the state.
The truth, often neglected, about dealing with China is that it is a command economy, where in many cases Chinese companies are looking actively to advance China’s strategic interests. In this particular case, the provocative territory-claiming maps obviously slipped through because bureaucrats at both the central and the state levels had presumably lowered their guard or didn’t wish to rock the boat publicly when large investments were coming in.
But given the tortured history of relations between India and China, such slips come with enormous real-world consequences. No amount of Hindi-Chini buy-buy bonhomie can be allowed to legitimise disputed border claims or buy our silence on cartographic provocations.
The risk of strategic slippages is heightened on this trip because Modi is pointedly looking to distance himself from the central government to make a political point. That leaves his bureaucrats particularly vulnerable to “panda ambush” diplomacy.
For a visitor from India, China’s showcase cities—Beijing and Shanghai, where Modi will be visiting—can in many ways be dizzying. The sense of wonderment that these cities give rise to has in the past caused visitors from overseas to lose all sense of proportion and perspective. Only the pursuit of level-headed, on-guard diplomacy can avert a repetition of the embarrassment of last week.
No comments:
Post a Comment