Brokerages see the downside somewhere in the range of 4000- 4660 for the National Stock Exchange ( NSE) index Nifty according to a survey conducted by Mail Today. The Nifty closed on Monday at 4,898.80 points, while the BSE Sensex ended the day at 16,341.70.
Punters are confident that investors could earn a return of at least 32 per cent simple interest or 15 per cent compound annual growth rate ( CAGR) from the current level or a little lower in the next two years.
However, they see the possibility of investors' earnings going up to 100 per cent in select stocks in the same period.
Responding to a query, Kishor Ostwal, chairman and managing director ( CMD), CNI Research said, " Some select stocks can give 100 per cent return in two years whereas the downside for the market could only be 10 per cent ( from the current level or at 4,400 of Nifty)," Ostwal has picked SBI, RIL, First Source, Maruti and ACC as the best stocks to buy at the current juncture.
A lot of the recent selling is on account of global uncertainties and event risks, particularly arising from slowdown fears in the high debt- hit US and Europe.
Vaibhav Agrawal, vice- president- research of Angel Broking sees the near- term downside at five to 10 per cent from current levels. But investors who have a two to three years holding period can accumulate structurally strong stocks at dips.
Angel recommends stocks like Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Infosys, L& T and RIL from the longterm point of view.
With the market entering a prolonged bear phase, over 20 of the 50 stocks in Nifty are trading at 52- week lows, some at their multi- year lows.
Paras Bothra, research headequities of Ashika Stock Broking says the downside could be around 4000 to 4200 points. " Probably a 50 per cent return in the next two to three years from the low is not ruled out," Bothra added. Mahindra Holidays, Zydus Wellness and Coal India, besides cement and banking stocks are his investment bets.
" We expect the defensive stocks to give returns of around 50 per cent from the current levels in two years," Hiren Dhakan, associate fund manager, Bonanza Portfolio, said. He picked ITC, Jubilant Life, GMDC, IGL and Apollo Hospital as the best defensive stocks to pick in this bear phase.
Sharekhan and SMC Investment & Advisors were a bit conservative in their approach when they said that the stock market may give returns in the range of 15- 20 per cent per annum in the next two years. While ITC, BHEL, Godrej Consumer, Divi's Labs and CESC are Sharekhan's best picks, SMC votes in favour of sectors like pharma, fast moving consumer goods ( FMCG), fertilisers, irrigation and oil marketing companies ( OMCs).
Tushar Makhija, CEO and cofounder, Stockezy. com, an investor community on the Internet, sees the Nifty reaching 6500- point level in the next one year if the world economy gets back in order. " You will be surprised that this market which is now falling as if there is no bottom, will be reaching for the skies at the same rate, or may be faster," Makhija added.
However, experience suggests that it is difficult to project market movements with precision.
So, these are only guesses at best, from the present stand point.
32% returns could be earned by investors from the current level in the next 2 years
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