Abbas bid fraught with danger

Determined: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Photo: Reuters

PALESTINIAN President Mahmoud Abbas says he will seek UN membership for a state of Palestine this week, putting him on a collision course with Israel and the United States as both face an Arab world in turmoil.

His plan, made public in a television address on Friday, follows months of failed US and European efforts to restart Palestinian negotiations with Israel.

Some fear his move will raise hopes among his people, with nothing changing for them on the ground. Combined with alarmed reactions from Israeli settlers, violent showdowns could erupt.

But the Palestinians say that after decades of occupation and about 20 years of failed talks with an increasingly hawkish Israel, it is time for a new approach in which the borders of a Palestinian state are first recognised globally and then two states, Israel and Palestine, negotiate final details.

The decision to apply for membership through the UN Security Council signals a double defeat for the US. Washington not only failed to dissuade the Palestinians from a unilateral bid for statehood, but also fell short of confining the application to the UN General Assembly, where Obama administration officials believe a vote for statehood would be less divisive.

The Obama administration has vowed to use its veto at the council to prevent full recognition of Palestine. But it is eager to avoid doing so because that action would likely leave the US isolated on the issue, weakening its standing with Arab nations at a politically delicate moment.

The borders Mr Abbas seeks are those of 1967, meaning East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza would be included. More than 500,000 Israelis have settled beyond those lines.

Israel, while accepting the idea of a Palestinian state, wants to leave nearly all of the borders where they are and keep control of Jerusalem. It also fears militant groups and missiles would penetrate such a state unless Israel controls its borders, an approach rejected by the Palestinians.

One goal of the move is to gain admission to international legal and diplomatic forums where complaints against Israeli occupation and settlement could be pursued. Mr Abbas said he was not seeking to delegitimise Israel, only to advance negotiations between two equals.

For the Obama administration, the move poses an acute dilemma. It has vowed to use its veto because it argues that the only viable way towards Palestinian statehood is through direct talks with Israel. But for the past eight months, Arab countries have risen in revolt against dictators and the Palestinian question has totemic significance for the entire region.

The US has struggled to place itself on the side of those seeking justice and freedom in the revolts. But the Obama administration has supported uprisings in Libya and, less strongly, in Syria, while looking the other way during a crackdown by an ally, Bahrain. A veto would intensify Arab perceptions of American double standards.