Tuesday, August 2, 2011

US debt crisis: What happens next?

Obama statement on Debt Ceiling Increase
US president Barack Obama address the media after the vote on the debt ceiling deal. Photograph: Rex Features
What is the immediate effect of the deal?
It grants a $400bn increase in the government's debt ceiling to stave off the threat of default, with an additional $500bn increase available from February to be effective on the president's authority. Further increases of $1.2tn-$1.5tn will become available if a balanced budget amendment is considered by Congress by the end of the year.

When do the spending cuts kick in?
From the start of the government's 2012 fiscal year on 1 October, savings of $21bn are to be made through limits on spending. After that, caps on federal spending are to save an estimated $917bn over 10 years by slowing the speed of increases. Further cuts are to be identified by a bipartisan "super committee".
What's the 'super committee'?
A 12-member congressional panel to meet in November and come up with a plan to reduce deficits by $1.2tn to $1.5tn over 10 years. It can consider tax or revenue increases. If it fails to produce a plan acceptable to Congress, the deal triggers steep, automatic cuts in spending of a similar size.
How does this trigger work?
The trigger is designed to encourage the committee to produce meaningful ways to cut the deficit. If it fails, across-the-board spending cuts in discretionary spending starting from fiscal year 2013 will be set in motion, with half coming from defence – a painful prospect for many Republicans. Medicaid and social security payments are protected, with limited cuts to Medicare programmes – painful for Democrats.
What is the 'balanced budget amendment'?
By the end of 2011 Congress must consider adding an amendment to the US constitution that the federal budget be balanced. If Congress approves the amendment the debt ceiling can be raised on the president's authority by $1.5tn. But if, as is more likely, it is not approved, the debt ceiling can be raised by just $1.2tn.
What does this balanced budget amendment mean?
It would give constitutional force to a rule requiring that the budget could not exceed revenues or exceed 18% of US national income unless approved by a super-majority in both houses of Congress.
Will it help balance the budget?
No. Experts say that the amendment as proposed has significant practical flaws that make it unenforceable. Further, economists argue that it is based on questionable assumptions.
What is Obama's next move? 
A battle is looming over the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts. Allowing the tax cuts to lapse as scheduled in 2012 would produce around $3tn in additional revenue over the following decade. If Democrats and Obama have the stomach for a fight, they could turn the table on Republicans and block any extension.
Is the plan set in stone?
No. Congress can reopen and amend some or all parts of the deal at any time. Depending on the outcome of the 2012 presidential election, and the state of the economy in 2013, it seems all but certain the deal will be revised and possibly discarded entirely.

No comments:

Post a Comment

LinkWithin

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...