Monsoon crop scare

New Delhi, Aug. 1: Rainfall during the remaining two months of the monsoon season is likely to be 10 per cent below normal, weather scientists said today, predicting monsoon behaviour that they say “has the potential to hurt crops in some places”.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said rainfall over India during August and September is likely to be 90 per cent of the long period average, after a copious 111 per cent rainfall in June but a deficient 86 per cent rainfall in July.

In an updated monsoon forecast, the IMD also said rainfall in the Northeast is likely to be 13 per cent below normal, much lower than what it had predicted earlier.

Agrometeorological scientists, however, say it was still early to predict the impact, if any, on crops because of the copious rainfall across most of India during June and a “wavy pattern” in the rains during much of July.

“We had abundant rainfall during June, and in July, we had some rain, then a gap, some more rain, then another gap,” said Laxman Singh Rathore, a senior agrometeorologist with the IMD, New Delhi. “This has helped maintain soil moisture.”

He said the impact of the 10 per cent predicted deficit would critically depend on the distribution of the rainfall. If most of the deficit occurs in the Northeast — where even normal rainfall levels are high — there is likely to be little impact on crops, he said.

“But an overall 10 per cent deficit could mean that some areas get 98 per cent — or near normal rainfall — while some areas might have to do with only 84 per cent. In such places, crop productivity will be affected,” Rathore said.

“Changes in the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean in recent months may be among the factors contributing to the monsoon patterns we’re likely to observe during August and September,” said D.S. Pai, a senior meteorologist at the IMD, Pune. Scientists also believe the monsoon is currently in a “below-normal” epoch of its natural variability, a natural cycle during which rainfall is slightly above or below the normal.

“The deviations from the normal within this natural variation are small,” Pai said.

The IMD had earlier this year issued regional monsoon forecasts — three per cent below normal in northwest India, five per cent below normal in central India and six per cent below normal in the southern peninsular region.

The new forecast issued today said these values are unlikely to change.

However, the IMD said, the seasonal rainfall over northeast India is likely to be less than 87 per cent of the long period average.