Sunday, July 31, 2011

Karnataka CM probables


Now that Yeddyurappa is finally going out, Karnataka is looking out for a new chief minister. Here are some names doing the rounds, and what you can expect from them:
Jagadish Shettar: A Lingayat from northern Karnataka, the 56-year-old leader hails from a trader sub-sect, and is now the panchayat raj and rural development minister. The Lingayats, who can swing elections in the northern districts, had supported Yeddyurappa, so Shettar could be a smart strategic replacement. Shettar has been in the BJP for almost as long as Yeddyurappa, though he hasn't distinguished himself with any big initiative. He was unhappy when he was made speaker of the assembly when Yeddyurappa began his term. The Reddy brothers, now discredited by the Lokayukta report, arm-twisted Yeddyurappa into giving him a ministerial berth. Yeddyurappa hates him for that, and may short-circuit his chances.

Sadananda Gowda: True to his name ('always happy'),  he is always sporting a 1,000-watt smile. Hailing from coastal Karnataka, Sadananda Gowda belongs to the Vokkaliga community, which the Deve Gowda family claims to represent. The Vokkaligas, an agricultural caste, hold sway in the southern districts, and the BJP may see Sadananda Gowda supported by Yeddyurappa a killer combination that brings together the two big vote banks of Karnataka. Sadananda Gowda is known for his honesty, and that attribute may help the BJP recover some of its dignity in a post-scandal situation. He is now the state BJP president. He has little to no experience in administration.
Ananth Kumar: This MP from Bangalore is articulate and speaks many languages well: Kannada, English and Hindi, besides his mother tongue Telugu. He has been a long-time rival of Yeddyurappa, which means one whole faction in the party is against him. The Brahmin leader is Advani's choice; Yeddyurappa belongs in the Vajpayee camp. Ananth Kumar was civil aviation minister at the centre during the NDA regime, and a recent book says Niira Radia rose to prominence because of her friendship with him. Ananth Kumar has more experience and charisma than Sadananda Gowda and Jagadish Shettar, but may still lose out in the race.
One dark horse being discussed is S Suresh Kumar, law minister in Yeddyurappa's ministry. Suresh Kumar has a blemishless political career. It might be difficult for him to lead, and be answerable, for the many venal elements in the party. The mining lobby and Yeddyurappa's rowdy supporters, such as Renukacharya, are sure to give sleepless nights to any new leader who seeks to clean things up. Like Ananth Kumar, this Bangalorean is a Brahmin. The 'party with a difference' could get a real face-lift if it gave him the opportunity, but indications are that he will continue to remain a marginal presence.
So what will happen to Yeddyurappa? It looks like he will be retired for the moment, and brought back after some months as state BJP president. In Delhi, the talk is that he abused Advani in private when he was told that he would have to quit. Yeddyurappa as a rebel within the BJP could cause considerable damage, which is why the party is dealing with him so gingerly.

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