Thursday, July 28, 2011

Recent Test history hints that India can bounce back

Bangalore: Another first Test in an overseas series, and another defeat for this Indian team. While there were admittedly several factors that went against India at Lord's - the injuries to Zaheer Khan and Gautam Gambhir, and Sachin Tendulkar's illness all severely affected the team - the fact remains that they were outclassed, and now need to mount yet another comeback to draw level.






 The only positive, perhaps, is that India would be used to this scenario, since they have faced it five times on their last seven tours (excluding tours to Bangladesh) all within the last four years. Between 2003 and 2007, there were six successive series when India had avoided that fate (twice in Pakistan, and once each in Australia, West Indies, South Africa and England), but the first-Test bug has hit them hard since, with defeats in Australia, Sri Lanka (twice), South Africa, and now in England.

MS Dhoni can also draw some hope from the fact that the first Test will be followed by the second Test. That's stating the obvious, but historically their performances in second Tests have been huge improvements on the first. Over the last decade, and excluding tours to Zimbabwe and Bangladesh, India have a 4-9 win-loss record in first Tests of away series, with the four wins coming in Pakistan, South Africa, New Zealand and West Indies. In second Tests, on the other hand, they've won six times and lost only four, which means their win-loss ratio in second Tests is almost three-and-a-half times times their first-Test ratio.

Overall, second Tests seem to conjure much happier memories for India, with wins in Kandy (2001), Port of Spain (2002), Adelaide (2003), Trent Bridge (2007), Galle (2008) and Durban (2010). Twice in the last three years, India have bounced back to win the second Test after losing the first - in Sri Lanka in 2008, and in South Africa last year. They promptly lost the third Test in that Sri Lanka series, but in South Africa they drew the third Test in Cape Town to ensure the series ended 1-1. Of the eight previous occasions when they've lost the first Test overseas since 2001, India have lost the series five times and drawn it thrice. More encouragingly, they've drawn the last two such instances, in Sri Lanka (in 2010) and South Africa.

Coming back to the current series, it also helps that the venue for the second Test is again Trent Bridge, a ground where they beat England by seven wickets in 2007.

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