Why Yeddyurappa must go

As the Lokayukta time bomb ticks away, and Karnataka readies for a political explosion, Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa is doing something totally uncharacteristic: holidaying in Mauritius.

Every time he faces trouble, he goes away on a pilgrimage to remote Kerala, faraway Vaishnodevi, but this time, he isn't being so pious. As we write, he is busy fishing in a tiny, picturesque country, far away from home.

Lokayukta Santosh Hegde's report, which indicts Yeddyurappa for his involvement in illegal mining, also names his cabinet colleagues, the Reddy brothers.

Hegde has already confirmed what the media are talking about: many big names profited from illegal mining, not just in the BJP but also in the JD(S) and the Congress. A change of guard in Vidhana Soudha seems imminent in the face of so much evidence of wrongdoing and corruption.

The Reddys, sons of a police constable, now run a steel business that straddles two states, and competes with the Tatas and the Mittals. The robber-barons, as many describe them, operate in the Bellary region, and are so notorious the Lokayukta has sought protection for his officers on duty there. Yeddyurappa's children are also in the dock, and it will be difficult for him to brush away the corruption allegations this time. They allegedly got kickbacks for the grant of mining licences.

The BJP, caught on the back foot, is raising silly objections, seeking a probe into how the report was leaked, instead of talking about action against those looting the state's resources. In another shameful sidelight, Hegde has said his phone was tapped. This government thinks nothing of spying on a serving ombudsman and former Supreme Court judge.

So what will happen tomorrow? Some possibilities:

1. Yeddyurappa brazens it out: The outrage will be huge once the report is formally submitted, and the Congress and the JD(S) aren't going to let this opportunity slip away so easily. The BJP may be forced to ask him to step down. Yeddyurappa has grown bigger than the party, and on at least two or three earlier occasions, has defined the Delhi leadership to continue as chief minister.

2. Yeddyurappa rules by proxy: The buzz is that he is saying if at all he needs to step down, his position should go to his cabinet colleague and significant other Shobha Karandlaje. If that happens, a rebellion is likely within the party. Shobha is a relatively young politician and the Reddys had once gone to Delhi seeking her removal from the cabinet. Their own existence is now in jeopardy, so they may not do anything to embarrass Yeddyurappa now, but still, putting Shobha in the chief minister's seat is not going to be so easy.

3. V S Acharya takes over. This doctor from the coast is considered clean and non-controversial, but he is also ineffectual and may not be able to do anything dramatic to stall the state's decline. His seniority makes him a chief ministerial candidate. He will be acceptable both to Yeddyurappa and the party bosses in Delhi. Others in the reckoning are Jagadish Shettar, experienced but lacking in dynamism, and Suresh Kumar, blemishless but with no mass base.

4. The BJP discredits the report: The party's leaders are busy making insinuations about how the report made it to media even before it was formally presented to the government. If Rajnath Singh, Prakash Javdekar, Dhananjay Kumar and other BJP stalwarts manage to create the impression that the report is motivated, they may be able to gain time. This time around, both the Congress and the BJP are sniping, even if cautiously, at the Lokayukta, so you can be fairly sure there's no political hand behind the report.

* Yeddyurappa must act, says Congress leader Ambika Soni
* Yes, the leaked report is genuine, says Lokayukta